tckwavm
jrefrmEdkifiHrSm t&rf;acwfpm;wmu qmaA; (Survey) aumufwmyg/ awGUwdkif;olwdkif;ar;vdkuf&if qmaA; (Survey) aumufwJholawGcsnf;yJ/
tvkyfwpfckckvkyfjyDqdk&if 'Dtvkyf b,favmufatmifjrifaMumif;? vlb,fESpfa,mufrSmjzifh
tusdK;&SdaMumif; ponfjzifhaygh/ tJ...'DrSm awmfawmfrsm;rsm;
qmaA;aumufwJholawGawmfawmfrsm;rsm;rSm txifrSm;aewmav;wpfckudk oGm;awGUrdygw,f/
b,frSmvJqdkawmh udk,fqmaA;aumufr,fh vlOD;a& (Sample Size)
,lwJhae&mrSmyg/
trsm;u b,fvdkxifaevJqdkawmh udk,foGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&rsm;av? aumif;av
vdkUxifMuw,f/ 'ghtjyif oGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&u rlvpkpkaygif;vlOD;a& (Total
Population) &JU tenf;qHk; 5% wdkU 10% wdkU &Sd&r,f qdkwmu
ygao;w,f/ 'grS Statistics t& wdusr,fayghav/
tJ'gu awmfawmfav;udk rSm;aewJh t,ljzpfygw,f/ vlOD;a&rsm;av?
aumif;avqdkwmudkawmh tMurf;zsif; vufcHygw,f/ 'gayr,fh udk,fhavhvmr,fh
taMumif;t&mtay:rlwnfjyD; vlOD;a&ta&twGufwpfckcka&mufoGm;jyD;&if
aemufxyfvlOD;a&xyfwdk;vnf; udk,fhtwGuf bmrSxyfjyD; tusdK;r&Sdawmhygbl;/
oGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&ydkrsm;wJhtwGufom ydkufqHydkukefomwm &Sdygvdrfhr,f/
'Dawmh udk,fhtwGuf taumif;qHk;oGm;ar;oifhwJh vlOD;a&
ta&twGufu b,favmufvJ/
aocsmwmuawmh trsm;u ajymaewJh 5% wdkU 10% wdkU
r[kwfwmawmh trSefyJ/ tvG,fulqHk; Oyrmay;vdkufr,f/ tck 2015
a&G;aumufyGJtwGuf MudKyGdKifhwGufcsif&if jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a&oef;
60 &JU 10% jzpfwJh vlOD;a& 6 oef;udkom oGm;ar;&&if wu,fhudk
rvG,faMumyJ/
tckvkyfaewJh qmaA;awmfawmfrsm;rsm;u rlvu vlOD;a& (Total
Population) &JU b,ftcsdK; (Proportion) u b,fvdkrsdK;vJudk odcsifMuwmrsm;ygw,f/ Oyrm – jrefrmEdkifiH&JU udk,f0efaqmiftrsdK;orD;OD;a&b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u
om;zGm;q&mrawGeJU eD;uyfqufqHrI&SdovJ/ 2015 rSm a':pkudk
b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u rJay;rvJaygh/ uav;b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u
tpm00vifvifpm;&ovJ/ vlOD;a&b,favmufu pmwwfvJ/
'Dvdk Proportion udk odcsifwJhtcgrSm &SdwwfwJh 'D Proportion awG&JU
jzefUusufrI (Distribution) u Binomial Distribution jzpfygw,f/ ESpfckxJu wpfckudk
a&G;&wJhjzefUusufrIwdkif;u Binomial Distribution jzpfygw,f/ apmapmu OyrmrSm jrefrmEdkifiH&JU
udk,f0efaqmiftrsdK;orD;wpfa,mufu om;zGm;q&mrawGeJU eD;uyfqufqHrI&Sd&if&Sdw,f?
r&Sd&if r&Sdbl;/ a':pkudk rJay;&ifay;? ray;&if ray;bl;/
ESpfrsdK;xJu wpfrsdK;yJ vkyfydkifcGifh&Sdw,f/ ESpfrsdK;pvHk;rjzpfEdkifbl;/
'D Binomial Distribution &SdwJh vlOD;a&rsdK;twGuf Sample Size a&G;vdkU&Sd&if
pOf;pm;&r,fh tcsuf 3 csufyJ&Sdygw,f/
1/ rdrdcefUrSef;xm;onfh &mcdkifEIef; (Estimated
Proportion)
2/ vGJacsmfcGifh (Margin of Error)
3/ ,HkMunfrItwdkif;twm (Confidence Level)
wpfckrS apmapmuajymwJh rlvvlOD;a&&JU
b,f&mcdkifEIef;qdkwm r[kwfbl;/
1/ rdrdcefUrSef;xm;onfh &mcdkifEIef; (Estimated
Proportion)
udk,fu bmudkyJ avhvm avhvm? udk,favhvmaewJh taMumif;t&meJU
ywfoufjyD; aemufcHokawoe (Background Research) rvkyfvdkUr&ygbl;/ t&ifu wpfjcm;olawG
avhvmxm;wmawG&Sdw,f/ 'gawGoHk;jyD; tckudk,fvkyf&ifawmh tajzu
bmav;jzpfEdkifw,fqdkjyD; MudKwifcefUrSef;&ygw,f/ Educated
Guess
aygh/ olrsm;vkyfxm;jyD;om;r&Sd&ifawmif wu,hfokawoeMuD;rvkyfcif
tMudKokawoeav; (Pilot Study) t&ifvkyf&ygw,f/ udk,fhrSm bmMudKwifxifjrifcsuf (Hypothesis) rS r&SdbJ
okawoeoGm;vkyf&if 'g[mppfrSefwJh okawoer[kwfygbl;/
Oyrm – uRefru jrefrmEdkifiH&JU
vlOD;a&b,favmufu pmwwfvJ avhvmcsifw,fqdkygawmh/ UN u t&ifu jrefrmEdkifiH&JU vlOD;a& 93% u
pmwwfw,fvdkU ajymxm;w,f/ tck bkef;awmfMuD;oifausmif;awG ydkrsm;vmjyD;qdkawmh
95% avmufawmh pmwwfvdrfhr,fvdkU uRefru xifw,f/
2/ vGJacsmfcGifh (Margin of Error)
'guawmh apmapmu uRefrxifxm;wmuae b,favmufvGJcGifh&SdvJqdkwmyg/
uRefru t&rf;wduscsif&if 1% vdkUajymvdkU&w,f/ 'grSr[kwf 3%
ajymvdkUvJ&w,f/ 10% vdkUvJajymvdkU&w,f/ aq;ynmrSm 'Duifqmaq;wpfckckaomufvdkuf&if
vlemaysmufoGm;rvm;? aooGm;rvm; odcsif&ifawmh 0.001% avmuftxd t&rf;wduszdkUvdkygw,f/
udk,favhvmwJh taMumif;t&mrSmyJ rlwnfygw,f/
'Dawmh tck 3% vdkUyJ ,lvdkuf&atmif/ 'Dawmh
uRefrxifwJh&mcdkifEIef;u 92% uae 98% txd jzpfEdkifw,f/ uRefrtwGufuawmh
pmwwfwJh &mcdkifEIef;u 95% uGufwdjzpfaezdkUrS rvdkwm/
3/ ,HkMunfrItwdkif;twm (Confidence Level)
'guawmh uRefr&JU okawoejyD;oGm;&if uRefr&vmr,fh
tajzay:rSm b,favmuf,HkMunfrI&SdovJqdkwm jzpfygw,f/ 'gudk Significance vdkUvJ
vlodrsm;Muygw,f/ awmfawmfrsm;rsm;uawmh Confidence Level udk 95% ,lMuygw,f/ tJ'gbmudkqdkvdkwmvJqdkawmh uRefrvkyfcJhwJh okawoetwdkif; \onfra&G; aemufxyf tacguf
100 xyfvkyfMunfh/ 95 acgufrSm &vmwJh tajzu apmapmu uRefr&wJh tajz eJU vGJacsmfcGifh
3% twGif; jyef&vdrfhr,fudk qdkvdkygw,f/ 'DrSm apmapmuvdkyJ
udk,favhvmwmeJUyJ qdkifygw,f/ tjrJwrf; 'DtajzyJ xGufapcsifae&ifawmh Confidence
Level
udkh 99% wdkUavmuftxd,l&rSmaygh/ odyfrvdk&ifawmh 90% avmufvJ jzpfygw,f/
tckawmh trsm;,lwJhtwdkif; 95% vdkYyJ ,l&atmif/ 'D 95% Confidence
Level udk
z-score
tjzpfajymif;vdkuf&if
1.96 &ygw,f/
'D 3 ck&&if usefwmu azmfjrLvmxJ xnfhvdkuf&HkygyJ/ Binomial
Distribution &SdwJh vlOD;a&rsdK;twGuf Sample Size a&G;zdkU
azmfjrLvmu
'DazmfjrLvmoHk;jyD; wGufvdkuf&if uRefravhvmcsifwJh
jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a& b,favmufpmwwfvJ okawoetwGuf vl 203 a,mufom vdkygw,f/ 'Dta,muf 203
a,muf u jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a&eJU ,SOfvdkuf&if awmfawmfhudk enf;aewmyg/ apmapmuvdkqdk&if
jrefrmEdkifiH vlOD;a&&JU 10% jzpfwJh ta,muf 6 oef;udk vdkufar;zdkU
rvdkygbl;/
wpfck&Sdwmu uRefru 'DrSm t"duokawoe ar;cGef;wpfckxJtwGufudkyJ tajccHjyD;wGufxm;wmyg/
wpfjcm;ar;cGef;awGyg tqpfygr,fqdk&ifawmh azmfjrLvmu
enf;enf;ajymif;oGm;ygr,f/ ar;cGef;rsm;vmavav?
ar;oifhwJh vlOD;a&vJydkrsm;vmEdkifavaygh/ aocsmwmuawmh 6 oef;txdra&mufbl;/
