Sample Ample

tckwavm jrefrmEdkifiHrSm t&rf;acwfpm;wmu qmaA; (Survey) aumufwmyg/ awGUwdkif;olwdkif;ar;vdkuf&if qmaA; (Survey) aumufwJholawGcsnf;yJ/ tvkyfwpfckckvkyfjyDqdk&if 'Dtvkyf b,favmufatmifjrifaMumif;? vlb,fESpfa,mufrSmjzifh tusdK;&SdaMumif; ponfjzifhaygh/ tJ...'DrSm awmfawmfrsm;rsm; qmaA;aumufwJholawGawmfawmfrsm;rsm;rSm txifrSm;aewmav;wpfckudk oGm;awGUrdygw,f/ b,frSmvJqdkawmh udk,fqmaA;aumufr,fh vlOD;a& (Sample Size) ,lwJhae&mrSmyg/

trsm;u b,fvdkxifaevJqdkawmh udk,foGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&rsm;av? aumif;av vdkUxifMuw,f/ 'ghtjyif oGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&u rlvpkpkaygif;vlOD;a& (Total Population) &JU tenf;qHk; 5% wdkU 10% wdkU &Sd&r,f qdkwmu ygao;w,f/ 'grS Statistics t& wdusr,fayghav/

tJ'gu awmfawmfav;udk rSm;aewJh t,ljzpfygw,f/ vlOD;a&rsm;av? aumif;avqdkwmudkawmh tMurf;zsif; vufcHygw,f/ 'gayr,fh udk,fhavhvmr,fh taMumif;t&mtay:rlwnfjyD; vlOD;a&ta&twGufwpfckcka&mufoGm;jyD;&if aemufxyfvlOD;a&xyfwdk;vnf; udk,fhtwGuf bmrSxyfjyD; tusdK;r&Sdawmhygbl;/ oGm;ar;r,fh vlOD;a&ydkrsm;wJhtwGufom ydkufqHydkukefomwm &Sdygvdrfhr,f/

'Dawmh udk,fhtwGuf taumif;qHk;oGm;ar;oifhwJh vlOD;a& ta&twGufu b,favmufvJ/ 

aocsmwmuawmh trsm;u ajymaewJh 5% wdkU 10% wdkU r[kwfwmawmh trSefyJ/ tvG,fulqHk; Oyrmay;vdkufr,f/ tck 2015 a&G;aumufyGJtwGuf MudKyGdKifhwGufcsif&if jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a&oef; 60 &JU 10% jzpfwJh vlOD;a& 6 oef;udkom oGm;ar;&&if wu,fhudk rvG,faMumyJ/

tckvkyfaewJh qmaA;awmfawmfrsm;rsm;u rlvu vlOD;a& (Total Population) &JU b,ftcsdK; (Proportion) u b,fvdkrsdK;vJudk odcsifMuwmrsm;ygw,f/ Oyrm – jrefrmEdkifiH&JU udk,f0efaqmiftrsdK;orD;OD;a&b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u om;zGm;q&mrawGeJU eD;uyfqufqHrI&SdovJ/ 2015 rSm a':pkudk b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u rJay;rvJaygh/ uav;b,favmuf&mcdkifEIef;u tpm00vifvifpm;&ovJ/ vlOD;a&b,favmufu pmwwfvJ/

'Dvdk Proportion udk odcsifwJhtcgrSm &SdwwfwJh 'D Proportion awG&JU jzefUusufrI (Distribution) u Binomial Distribution jzpfygw,f/ ESpfckxJu wpfckudk a&G;&wJhjzefUusufrIwdkif;u Binomial Distribution jzpfygw,f/ apmapmu OyrmrSm jrefrmEdkifiH&JU udk,f0efaqmiftrsdK;orD;wpfa,mufu om;zGm;q&mrawGeJU eD;uyfqufqHrI&Sd&if&Sdw,f? r&Sd&if r&Sdbl;/ a':pkudk rJay;&ifay;? ray;&if ray;bl;/ ESpfrsdK;xJu wpfrsdK;yJ vkyfydkifcGifh&Sdw,f/ ESpfrsdK;pvHk;rjzpfEdkifbl;/

'D Binomial Distribution &SdwJh vlOD;a&rsdK;twGuf Sample Size a&G;vdkU&Sd&if pOf;pm;&r,fh tcsuf 3 csufyJ&Sdygw,f/

1/ rdrdcefUrSef;xm;onfh &mcdkifEIef; (Estimated Proportion)

2/ vGJacsmfcGifh (Margin of Error)

3/ ,HkMunfrItwdkif;twm (Confidence Level)

wpfckrS apmapmuajymwJh rlvvlOD;a&&JU b,f&mcdkifEIef;qdkwm r[kwfbl;/

1/ rdrdcefUrSef;xm;onfh &mcdkifEIef; (Estimated Proportion)

udk,fu bmudkyJ avhvm avhvm? udk,favhvmaewJh taMumif;t&meJU ywfoufjyD; aemufcHokawoe (Background Research) rvkyfvdkUr&ygbl;/ t&ifu wpfjcm;olawG avhvmxm;wmawG&Sdw,f/ 'gawGoHk;jyD; tckudk,fvkyf&ifawmh tajzu bmav;jzpfEdkifw,fqdkjyD; MudKwifcefUrSef;&ygw,f/ Educated Guess aygh/ olrsm;vkyfxm;jyD;om;r&Sd&ifawmif wu,hfokawoeMuD;rvkyfcif tMudKokawoeav; (Pilot Study) t&ifvkyf&ygw,f/ udk,fhrSm bmMudKwifxifjrifcsuf (Hypothesis) rS r&SdbJ okawoeoGm;vkyf&if 'g[mppfrSefwJh okawoer[kwfygbl;/

Oyrm – uRefru jrefrmEdkifiH&JU vlOD;a&b,favmufu pmwwfvJ avhvmcsifw,fqdkygawmh/ UN u t&ifu  jrefrmEdkifiH&JU vlOD;a& 93% u pmwwfw,fvdkU ajymxm;w,f/ tck bkef;awmfMuD;oifausmif;awG ydkrsm;vmjyD;qdkawmh 95% avmufawmh pmwwfvdrfhr,fvdkU uRefru xifw,f/

2/ vGJacsmfcGifh (Margin of Error)

'guawmh apmapmu uRefrxifxm;wmuae b,favmufvGJcGifh&SdvJqdkwmyg/ uRefru t&rf;wduscsif&if 1% vdkUajymvdkU&w,f/ 'grSr[kwf 3% ajymvdkUvJ&w,f/ 10% vdkUvJajymvdkU&w,f/ aq;ynmrSm 'Duifqmaq;wpfckckaomufvdkuf&if vlemaysmufoGm;rvm;? aooGm;rvm; odcsif&ifawmh 0.001% avmuftxd t&rf;wduszdkUvdkygw,f/ udk,favhvmwJh taMumif;t&mrSmyJ rlwnfygw,f/

'Dawmh tck 3% vdkUyJ ,lvdkuf&atmif/ 'Dawmh uRefrxifwJh&mcdkifEIef;u 92% uae 98% txd jzpfEdkifw,f/ uRefrtwGufuawmh pmwwfwJh &mcdkifEIef;u 95% uGufwdjzpfaezdkUrS rvdkwm/

3/ ,HkMunfrItwdkif;twm (Confidence Level)

'guawmh uRefr&JU okawoejyD;oGm;&if uRefr&vmr,fh tajzay:rSm b,favmuf,HkMunfrI&SdovJqdkwm jzpfygw,f/ 'gudk Significance vdkUvJ vlodrsm;Muygw,f/ awmfawmfrsm;rsm;uawmh Confidence Level udk 95% ,lMuygw,f/ tJ'gbmudkqdkvdkwmvJqdkawmh uRefrvkyfcJhwJh okawoetwdkif; \onfra&G; aemufxyf tacguf 100 xyfvkyfMunfh/ 95 acgufrSm &vmwJh tajzu apmapmu uRefr&wJh tajz eJU vGJacsmfcGifh 3% twGif; jyef&vdrfhr,fudk qdkvdkygw,f/ 'DrSm apmapmuvdkyJ udk,favhvmwmeJUyJ qdkifygw,f/ tjrJwrf; 'DtajzyJ xGufapcsifae&ifawmh Confidence Level udkh 99% wdkUavmuftxd,l&rSmaygh/ odyfrvdk&ifawmh 90% avmufvJ jzpfygw,f/

tckawmh trsm;,lwJhtwdkif; 95% vdkYyJ ,l&atmif/ 'D 95% Confidence Level udk z-score tjzpfajymif;vdkuf&if 1.96 &ygw,f/

'D 3 ck&&if usefwmu azmfjrLvmxJ xnfhvdkuf&HkygyJ/ Binomial Distribution &SdwJh vlOD;a&rsdK;twGuf Sample Size a&G;zdkU azmfjrLvmu

'DazmfjrLvmoHk;jyD; wGufvdkuf&if uRefravhvmcsifwJh jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a& b,favmufpmwwfvJ okawoetwGuf vl 203 a,mufom vdkygw,f/ 'Dta,muf 203 a,muf u jrefrmEdkifiHvlOD;a&eJU ,SOfvdkuf&if awmfawmfhudk enf;aewmyg/ apmapmuvdkqdk&if jrefrmEdkifiH vlOD;a&&JU 10% jzpfwJh ta,muf 6 oef;udk vdkufar;zdkU rvdkygbl;/

wpfck&Sdwmu uRefru 'DrSm t"duokawoe ar;cGef;wpfckxJtwGufudkyJ tajccHjyD;wGufxm;wmyg/ wpfjcm;ar;cGef;awGyg tqpfygr,fqdk&ifawmh azmfjrLvmu enf;enf;ajymif;oGm;ygr,f/ ar;cGef;rsm;vmavav? ar;oifhwJh vlOD;a&vJydkrsm;vmEdkifavaygh/ aocsmwmuawmh 6 oef;txdra&mufbl;/