Watch out

A good friend of mine from work always joked me how statisticians are crazy. Here is the story.  

 

 A statistician once wanted to know the time. So he took out his two pocket watches. One watch was broken and hence, stopped at noon. Another watch was found to be 5 minutes early. He decided to use the broken watch to look up the time.

Here is the reasoning behind his thoughts: 
Watch 1: Although it is broken, there will be 2 moments in a day when he has the chance to get the time right.
Watch 2: Since the watch is always 5 minutes early, he will never get the time right.

Sounds crazy, right? How did that happen? The logic is exactly right.

This just points out how important it is for statisticians to know not only the numbers but also the context.

In this case, the poor guy just got the model wrong. He could have plotted the correct time (Y) versus the times that the two watches are showing (X1 and X2). (Y~X1) and (Y~X2). He would have found out that the second watch was a much better fit. 

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အလုပ္က ခင္မင္ရတဲ့ အန္ကယ္ၾကီးတစ္ေယာက္က ကၽြန္မကို စာရင္းပညာရွင္ေတြ ေဂါက္ေၾကာင္ျဖစ္တတ္ပံုအေၾကာင္းကို ဒီလိုအျမဲေနာက္ေလ့ရွိပါတယ္။

 တစ္ခါက စာရင္းပညာရွင္တစ္ေယာက္က အခ်ိန္သိခ်င္တဲ့အတြက္ သူ႕ရဲ႕ အိတ္ေဆာင္နာရီ ၂ လံုးကို ထုတ္ၾကည့္လိုက္ပါတယ္။ ပထမနာရီက ကြဲျပီး ရပ္ေနပါတယ္။ ေနာက္နာရီကေတာ့ ၅ မိနစ္ျမန္ေနပါတယ္။ အဲဒါနဲ႕ပဲ ပညာရွင္ၾကီးက ပထမနာရီကို သံုးဖို႕ ဆံုးျဖတ္လိုက္ပါတယ္။

သူစဥ္းစားတာက ဒီလိုေလ။ ပထမနာရီက ရပ္ေနေပမယ့္ တစ္ေန႕ကို ၂ ခါေတာ့ မွန္ႏိုင္ေသးတယ္။ ဒုတိယနာရီက အျမဲတမ္း ၅ မိနစ္စာ လြဲေနဦးမယ္။

ဘာေတြလဲ။ ဘယ္လိုျဖစ္သြားတာလဲ။ သူေျပာေတာ့လည္း ဟုတ္ေနတာပဲမလား။

ဒီပံုျပင္ေလးက စာရင္းပညာရွင္ေတြအဖို႕ နံပါတ္ေတြပဲ ၾကည့္မယ့္အစား အေျခအေနကိုလည္း နားလည္ဖို႕လိုေၾကာင္း မီးေမာင္းထိုးျပေနပါတယ္။ 

တကယ္လို႕ ပညာရွင္ၾကီးက အခ်ိန္အမွန္နဲ႕ နာရီ ၂ ခုက ျပေနတဲ့ အခ်ိန္ေတြကိုသာ ဂရပ္ဆြဲၾကည့္လိုက္ရင္ ဒုတိယနာရီက ပိုမွန္ေၾကာင္း သိႏိုင္ပါတယ္။