Thursday, October 24, 2013

Murphy eventually



Murphy's Law says  "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong eventually"I am sure everyone has heard of it. Guess what! Murphy was right. Here is a simple statistical trick to prove it.


Step 1
Let's say,    
Probability that A can go wrong                                      =   p
Probability that A cannot go wrong                                  =  1 - p
Probability that A has never gone wrong after n trials      = (1 - p)^n


Step 2
Probability that A will go wrong at least once after n trials
= 1 - Probability that A has never gone wrong after n trials
= 1 - (1 - p)^n

Step 3
Probability that A will go wrong eventually
= lim (n -> infinity)        Probability that A will go wrong at least once after n trials
= lim (n -> infinity)             1 - (1 - p)^n   
=              1                -       lim (n -> infinity)        (1 - p)^n 
=              1                -       0                                                             { because 0 < 1 - p < 1 }
=              1


QED. Isn't it neat?
   



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